11/18/96 A KINDER, GENTLER NEWT?

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A KINDER, GENTLER NEWT?

Never mind that House Speaker Newt Gingrich may be the most unpopular politician in America. The caustic Georgian is hailing the GOP's slim victory in House elections on Nov. 5 as nothing less than a personal vindication. ''I feel a wonderful sense of fulfillment,'' said Gingrich, who becomes the first Republican since 1928 to serve consecutive terms as Speaker. ''The American people looked beyond all the name-calling, all the demagoguery, and all the negative ads,'' and returned the GOP to its dominance in the House.
Still, few Republicans would view Election '96 as a Gingrich triumph. Voters didn't reelect Republicans to continue his revolution so much as to keep a check on President Clinton. And that means a very different Gingrich will be in charge come 1997. Representative W.J. ''Billy'' Tauzin (R-La.) says the Speaker realizes he must ''take the hard edge off and sell the Republican agenda one item at a time in a moderate, practical tone.''
The '96 campaign was a sobering comeuppance for Gingrich. His oversize ego and strategic blunders--particularly a decision to force a government shutdown over a budget dispute with Clinton a year ago--angered voters. He wasn't helped by dozens of Democrat-filed ethics complaints, which he dismisses as groundless harassment. As a result, Gingrich kept a low profile for much of this year, serving his party mostly as a fund-raiser and behind-the-scenes strategist.
WOUNDED. Now, with his GOP majority down by some 9 seats from the current 235, he may have to work with a bloc of 30 centrist Democrats to seek bipartisan consensus, something he couldn't be bothered with in 1995. ''Newt will either deal with conservative and moderate Democrats or he won't have a working majority,'' says Representative Chet Edwards (D-Tex.).
Moreover, the 53-year-old Georgian will have to share leadership power. House Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-Texas), Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas), and Budget Committee Chairman John R. Kasich (R-Ohio) all will take on more prominent roles. And Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), who won bipartisan raves for brokering deals, likely will become the top Hill Republican. Says Republican strategist William Kristol: ''Newt was wounded in this campaign. Lott is now the most important Republican in Washington.''
None of that will stop Gingrich from devising a new GOP game plan, and possibly plotting a White House bid for 2000. ''Newt will be back with a vengeance,'' predicts Brookings Institution political scientist Bruce L.R. Smith. Gingrich's immediate goal is to regain the budget-balancing offensive he held until Democrats cast the GOP Congress as a bunch of zealots out to slash popular environmental, education, and entitlement programs to finance tax cuts for the rich. Even if he succeeds, though, he will be a far cry from the cocky Speaker who once ruled Capitol Hill with an iron gavel.
By Richard S. Dunham in Washington, with David Greising in Atlanta

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