09/02/96 CAN'T TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A SCORECARD

CAN'T TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A SCORECARD

President Clinton hardly has a lock on reelection. But that hasn't stopped senior Administration officials from stepping to that election-year dance craze, the Cabinet Shuffle. The jockeying already is fierce for plum jobs in Clinton's presumed second term.
Aides say Clinton likely will let most high-level hands stay if they choose. That means the new team will probably have many of the same faces--but often in new jobs. And it should be more attuned to his current centrist style of governing. After his election in '92, Clinton assembled a diverse, politically correct Cabinet. This time, the group should be more seasoned and pragmatic.
On the economic side, several key advisers want to stay put: Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Joseph E. Stiglitz, and Fannie Mae Vice-Chairman Franklin D. Raines, who is awaiting confirmation as director of the Office of Management & Budget. Laura D'Andrea Tyson, director of the White House National Economic Council, will probably leave to teach economics at the University of California at Berkeley. Top prospects to succeed her are Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Erskine B. Bowles (now an investment banker), and Ira C. Magaziner, architect of the '94 health-care reform fiasco.
Clintonites say Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor wants out of his post and hopes to replace Attorney General Janet Reno, who is expected to depart for health reasons. If he gets the job, Kantor would try to break up Japanese and other foreign cartels using U.S. antitrust laws. But Clinton aides believe the favorite to succeed Reno is her deputy, Jamie S. Gorelick. Should Kantor leave Commerce, a business exec might well be tapped to replace him.
Colleagues of Labor Secretary Robert B. Reich, a vocal liberal in the Cabinet, expect him to return to Harvard University. Possible replacements are Deputy White House Chief of Staff Harold Ickes, a former New York labor lawyer; ex-AFL-CIO President Thomas R. Donahue; and Maria Echaveste, a Reich deputy.
SHAKEUPS. A top performer, acting U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky, will probably quit. That's because a brief private-sector stint as a lawyer representing the Canadian government bars her under a new law from becoming permanent USTR. Would-be successors are Commerce Under Secretary Stuart E. Eizenstat and Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr., head of the Economic Strategy Institute.
There will be some shakeups if Clinton wins. Though the White House denies it, Transportation Secretary Federico F. Pena likely will get the boot because of his flip-flops on ValuJet Airlines Inc.'s safety record. Federal Highway Administration head Rodney E. Slater could take over. Some Clintonites say Secretary of State Warren M. Christopher also is likely to leave. Clinton could name U.N. Ambassador Madeleine K. Albright as the first woman Secretary of State. Alternatives: Former Senate Majority Leader George J. Mitchell (D-Me.), Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, and ex-Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke.
Of course, the list is sure to change. But for now, Clintonites who hope to move up can pray--and plot.
By Owen Ullmann in Washington