09/02/96 CAN THE DEMOCRATS RETAKE CAPITOL HILL?

CAN THE DEMOCRATS RETAKE CAPITOL HILL?

Bill Clinton's second-term legislative agenda could be riding on the shoulders of people such as Michela Alioto and Catherine Lee. They're not exactly household names, but these two Democratic challengers are precisely the kind of candidates who must prevail in hotly contested House races if Democrats are to regain control of Congress.
Alioto, a 28-year-old former aide to Vice-President Al Gore, is seeking to unseat GOP freshman Representative Frank Riggs in a Northern California district that has ousted its incumbent member of Congress in each of the past three elections. The Napa Valley liberal is counting on strong backing from labor, environmentalists, and women's groups. Riggs has close ties to business, the Christian Right, and gun owners.
Lee--an experienced entrepreneur who has run her own consulting firm--is trying to oust conservative Illinois Representative Donald A. Manzullo in a traditionally moderate district once represented by maverick John B. Anderson and former Labor Secretary Lynn Martin. The Democrat is targeting swing voters in Chicago's northwestern exurbs by running as a fiscal conservative and social moderate.
VULNERABLE. It will take all the skill these and other Democratic challengers can muster--plus a dose of luck--to give Clinton the keys to Congress. Democrats face an uphill fight to win the two Senate slots and 20 House seats needed to retake Capitol Hill. More than half of the 74 House Republican freshmen are vulnerable, but Democrats have to contend with their own exposed flank. They're struggling to defend 29 open House seats and eight open Senate seats. Meanwhile, most of the 22 seats held by retiring Republicans appear to be safely in the GOP column.
Things are particularly bad for Democrats in the South, where Republicans are favored to pick up nine Democratic House seats and as many as three Senate seats. Republican incumbents are flush with cash. And Republican Presidential nominee Bob Dole's selection of Jack Kemp, a former House GOP star, provides a popular surrogate who will help raise money and generate enthusiasm for Republican candidates. ``Dole couldn't have done any better,'' grouses one Democratic operative.
Such sobering news from the Hill is a reason Clinton is planning such a modest agenda for his second term. If Republicans continue to rule Capitol Hill, Clinton will be forced to deal with entrenched conservatives led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott of Mississippi. What's more, the Republican class of '96 appears to be every bit as conservative as the current crop of freshmen. Hard-line conservatives have defeated moderates in nearly every primary showdown, including recent elections in Wyoming, Kansas, Colorado, Georgia, and Michigan. The GOP's continuing rightward tilt spells compromise or bust for most Clinton initiatives.
It's not that things are hopeless for the Democrats. Far from it. The Republican Congress is viewed with disfavor by most Americans, and polls point to Gingrich as one of America's most unpopular politicians. Moreover, in '92, Clinton carried many of the freshmen Republicans' districts. ``We have an excellent chance this year,'' insists Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Martin Frost (D-Tex.).
In the Senate, Democrats are in contention for 14 of the 19 GOP-held Senate seats. The most vulnerable: that of Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Larry Pressler of South Dakota. The three-termer is struggling to overcome a challenge from Representative Tim Johnson, a moderate backed heavily by trial lawyers. Pressler has raised over $1.1 million in PAC money, more than any other incumbent. But the battle for the Senate could well be decided in the Carolinas, where aging Republican warhorses Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) and Jesse A. Helms (R-N.C.) face stiff challenges.
In the House, the Democrats' only hope for taking control is to decimate the first-term GOP class. Analysts say Democrats must topple at least 30 of the rookies if they hope to compensate for Democratic losses elsewhere.
One bellwether race is in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, where firebrand freshman Republican Frederick K. Heineman is facing a rematch with moderate-liberal Democrat David Price after a close '94 race. Price, a Duke University professor, has criticized Heineman for saying that workers making up to $750,000 were ``middle class.'' Heineman, a former Raleigh police chief, is counting on help from Christian conservatives and tobacco interests.
In the end, the battle for Congress could well be decided by followers of Reform Party Presidential nominee Ross Perot. Four years ago, Perot's backers divided their votes evenly, helping the Democrats retain control of Congress. But in 1994, Perotistas cast two-thirds of their ballots for Republicans, sweeping the GOP into power.
This year, many Reform Party followers are skeptical of the GOP. ``I don't think they've kept their original promises,'' says Steve Varga, owner of a home-improvement business in Struthers, Ohio. ``They answer to Newt Gingrich rather than the constituents.'' Still, Varga says he's undecided. And GOP pollster Frank I. Luntz says his surveys suggest the Perotistas are more likely to stick with the GOP than they are to return power to the Democrats. Says Luntz: ``While they don't give the Republicans good marks, they give the Democrats far worse marks.''
Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Gingrich revolution. But it may be just the kind of backhanded compliment that keeps Congress in Republican hands--and Bill Clinton's agenda in legislative limbo.
By Richard S. Dunham in Washington