08/19/96 COMMENTARY: BOB IS BACK IN THE BALL GAME, BUT...

COMMENTARY: BOB IS BACK IN THE BALL GAME, BUT...

Ah, tax cuts, breakfast of champions. In one bold stroke, Bob Dole has ditched his dour Dr. Pain image for the dashing role of a born-again tax-cutter--and altered the dynamics of the Presidential race. For once, the change is in his favor. By pitting his 15% across-the-board tax cut against President Clinton's call for fiscal prudence, Dole has finally hit on an issue he's confident his rival won't try to co-opt. In the process, Dole may finally build some momentum behind his becalmed candidacy.
Is tax-cut fever enough to get Dole elected? Probably not, given his lack of appeal to key voter blocs. And a BUSINESS WEEK/Harris Poll of 1,007 adults conducted July 26-31 found that a tax cut ranks fourth on America's wish list, behind job creation, government downsizing, and cutting the budget deficit. Still, Dole's offer to boost workers' incomes via the tax code will surely help by putting the White House on the defensive--and reminding voters that Clinton reneged on a '92 call for middle-class tax relief. The plan has ``given the campaign a kick start,'' insists California's Republican Attorney General Dan Lungren.
Others beg to differ. ``If the Dole people believe this is going to be their silver bullet, they ought to submit to drug testing,'' says Claremont McKenna College political scientist John J. Pitney Jr. Indeed, Democrats argue that Dole's sudden embrace of tax cuts is a transparently political pirouette that undercuts his vow to replace Clinton's tactical shiftiness with Midwestern solidity. Dole's tax cut ``is the act of a desperate man rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic,'' says Democratic consultant Mark Siegel. ``It won't work.''
Other Dole flip-flops give the Democrats more ammo. Recently, for instance, Dole has reversed himself on abortion and repealing an assault-weapon ban. (First he favored repeal, then he retreated.) The latest Dole reversal came on Aug. 5, when he had to accept a humiliating drive by abortion foes to gut his platform ``tolerance plank.''
TOUGHEST SELL. The continuing abortion flap complicates Dole's attempt to narrow a potentially lethal gender gap. Among other doubters, Ann Stone, who chairs Republicans for Choice, says nearly half of her 150,000 members will vote for Clinton if Dole does not give new assurances of his desire to respect their views.
To have any hope of closing the gender gap, Dole needs to broaden his message. With women creating the majority of new small businesses, he could emphasize how his plan is designed to reduce government red tape for them. And he can try to attract mothers by stressing his voucher program, which lets parents send children to private or religious schools.
Perhaps Dole's toughest sell will be convincing people that an economy that grew at a 4.2% clip in the last quarter really needs a stimulative jolt. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Aug. 1-4 found that voters, by an 18-point margin, felt they were better off financially than when Clinton took office. No President has been defeated in this century under similar conditions.
Despite the hurdles he still faces, Dole's tax cuts at least helped consolidate his conservative base. Pat Buchanan's campaign manager, Terry Jeffrey, blessed the economic plan as ``a very good step in the right direction.'' And supply-side hero Steve Forbes now accompanies Dole on the campaign trail, calling the Kansan a convert to his ``hope, growth, and opportunity'' mantra.
But that may not be enough. Once tax-cut euphoria fades, Dole still has to cross the threshold of Presidential acceptability. That will take major improvements in style and message --something even admirers aren't sure Dole can pull off.
By Richard S. Dunham