08/19/96 BUSINESS WEEK/HARRIS POLL: LOWER TAXES? SURE. BUT...

BUSINESS WEEK/HARRIS POLL: LOWER TAXES? SURE. BUT...

Business Week/Harris Poll

DOLE'S TAX ATTACK: WILL IT WORK?

Tax cuts may be questionable economics--but we'll take them anyway. That's the main conclusion of this poll, taken July 26-31. For most Americans, cutting personal income taxes comes far down on the list of ways to boost the economy. And a stunning 69% of the public says Dole wouldn't be able to both slash taxes and balance the budget. Even so, if a tax cut of some sort is offered, fully 79% favor Dole's proposed $500-per-child tax credit, and 65% like the idea of a 15% tax cut. If the public is happy to take Dole's tax-cut money and run, it's still running straight to Bill Clinton. At the time of the poll, the President continued to lead Dole 45% to 24%, a gap that has held steady in numerous surveys in recent weeks.

IT'S STILL BILL
If the Presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for--Bill Clinton for the Democrats or Bob Dole for the Republicans or a third-party candidate such as Ross Perot or Richard Lamm, or would you not vote at all?

TOTAL WOMEN
Bill Clinton 45% 48%
Bob Dole 24% 23%
Ross Perot/Richard Lamm 11% 8%
Would not vote 16% 15%
Another candidate 2% 3%
Don't know 2% 3%

NOT MUCH HELP FOR THE ECONOMY
Bob Dole says America needs a large personal income-tax cut now to boost the economy and raise family incomes. Do you think such a personal income-tax cut will help the economy a lot, help the economy a little, hurt the economy a little, hurt the economy a lot, or not make any difference?

Help a lot 15%
Help a little 27%
Hurt a little 10%
Hurt a lot 8%
Not make any difference 34%
Don't know 6%

JOBS ARE ANSWER 1
I'm going to read you a list of things that might be used to help the economy and raise family incomes. Which of these do think will be most effective in helping the economy and raising family incomes?

Creating jobs 40%
Downsizing government 26%
Reducing the federal budget deficit 15%
Cutting personal income taxes 11%
Assuring fair trade 5%
Don't know 3%

LOVE THAT KID CREDIT
Here are some ideas that Bob Dole is considering as part of his economic plan. Do you favor or oppose that idea?

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't
Favor Favor Oppose Oppose Know
Giving an additional $500
per child credit
to families 49% 26% 9% 11% 5%
Cutting the federal
income tax rate by
as much as 15% 37% 28% 14% 15% 6%
Allowing individuals to
deduct from their income
tax a portion of the
payroll tax they pay
for Social Security* 27% 28% 18% 18% 9%
Cutting the rate on capital
gains from the sale of
houses, stocks, and
other investments 29% 25% 18% 17% 11%
Lowering the top tax rate
for high-income taxpayers
to 28% from 40%* 22% 18% 17% 37% 6%

YES, TAXES NEED FIXING
Bob Dole says that his long-term goal is to overhaul the tax code to move to a simpler system with lower rates but fewer deductions. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with this goal?

Strongly agree 28%
Somewhat agree 39%
Somewhat disagree 17%
Strongly disagree 13%
Don't know 4%

SKEPTICAL ABOUT PAYING THE PIPER
Here are some of the ways that Dole says he will pay for his tax cuts. If Dole is elected President, how likely is it that he will be able to do each of the following in order to lower taxes--very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't
Likely Likely Unlikely Unlikely Know
Eliminating some
government agencies 19% 31% 21% 25% 4%
Relying on tax cuts to
produce higher growth
and so, more revenues
for the Treasury 8% 30% 28% 27% 7%
Reducing tax breaks and
subsidies for corporations 9% 28% 27% 32% 4%
Slowing spending on social
programs such as
Medicare and Medicaid 10% 23% 27% 36% 4%
Selling off government assets
such as the airways used
by broadcasters 10% 23% 26% 31% 10%

MORE MIDDLE-CLASS PAIN? PROBABLY
President Clinton says the only way Dole can pay for tax cuts of this size is through large cuts in programs for the middle class and the poor such as Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, and education. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with President Clinton?

Strongly agree 34%
Somewhat agree 27%
Somewhat disagree 16%
Strongly disagree 21%
Don't know 2%

IMPOSSIBLE BALANCING ACT
Dole has said he plans to cut taxes by up to $600 billion over the next six years and still balance the budget. Do you think it is possible to both cut taxes and balance the budget, or not?

Possible 28%
Not possible 69%
Don't know 3%

Survey of 1,007 adults conducted July 26-31, 1996 for business week by Louis Harris & Associates Inc. Results should be accurate to within 3 percentage points.

*These items ultimately were not included in Dole's economic plan.
Edited by Keith H. Hammonds